Containing Iran
Ahmed Hany
November 05, 2009
Since President Obama has come he chose the soft power as a method to execute the American strategy. This was clear in his handling the Iranian file. He said that all options are still present on the table but he and his team orchestrated actions on different paths to limit choices for the Iranian decision makers.
The American-Russian deal about having the anti-missile systems in East Europe led to better understanding between the two great powers regarding the Iranian file. The Russian announced that they would support sanctions to be imposed on Iran if it failed to have a deal in its negotiations with the great force. The Russians declared that they canceled delivery of the S-300 air-defence system to Iran due to political reasons. The first reason was a direct request from Israel that for geopolitical reasons, Russia wants to keep a certain level with good contact and relations with the Hebrew state.
The Iranian government faces internal troubles that first limit its ability to deal with more sanctions. The rich oil country could not provide the prosperity for its people due to corruption and spending on the military apparatus and the nuclear institutions. The opposition is spreading among students and the middle class that threatening the existence of the regime. There are the armed minorities that apparently decided to confront the central government. The Azeri groups are present in the North, the Kurds are in the North West, and the Arabs of Arabistan are in the South West while the Blutch are present in the South West. The last group poses the greatest threat. Since ages the hostilities between them and Tehran was present and they played the biggest role to prevent the spread of Safawya Empire and the Shiite faith to central Asia. The Daily Telegraph published in 25 February 2007 that the US decided to finance separatists in Iran. That is why the Iranians accused the US of plotting the last terrorist attacks that killed high rank officers in the Revolutionary Guard in Sistan-Bluchistan. Jundallah fights since many years and it bombed a bus that was carrying Revolutionary Guard soldiers in 2007. This group and drug traffickers killed about three thousand soldiers since during the last thirty years.
However the interference of Iran in internal affair of regional countries makes all possibilities open for abettors. Besides, Iran accused Pakistani intelligence of supporting Jundallah group that was responsible about this terrorist attack. While all regional players suffer from terrorism, some internal causes should be resolved if Iran would succeed to face these groups. The atrocities against Sunnis and other races and the favorism of Persian race and Shiite faith are the real causes behind the armed movements´ attacks. When others use them against Iran there is a risk of backfire at their supporters. Most probably the Pakistanis learnt this lesson after Taliban became their security nightmare.
The Revolutionary Guard commanders threatened that they would fight this group even if they were forced to chase them in the Pakistani land. This will be the grave mistake of Tehran as this step just unit tribes in the Iranian part with the Pakistani part of Baluchistan. The mountainous geography will just play against Iranian army as it does against NATO in Afghanistan. The only way to keep security in tribal area especially in mountainous area is the agreement with tribes´ leaders.
On the economic level the US threatened that it would impose sanctions on importing gasoline to Iran. Iran produces about 40% of its gasoline need and imports about 60%. This step would destabilize the country. Two years ago when the Iranian government dealt with gasoline deficiency and was forced to increase its prices riots erupted. After the election problems in Iran the government is not likely to risk another big internal problem.
Another thing some reports told that the US promised China to have its oil requirements from the Emirati oil instead of Iranian oil to tighten the noose on the Iranian revenues and to win the Chinese support for sanctions.
The Iranian first refused France as a uranium enrichment center because France stopped nuclear cooperation with Iran before. However Russia froze some military cooperation. The Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani feared that the West may deceive Iran. It is supposed the Iran will 1200 kilograms of its 1500 stockpile to Russia and part will go to France to be further enriched to 20%. The Western intelligences doubt that Iran may have about twelve secret sites like the secret reactor near Qom city. The talks now are about how much Iran should send and if it would be allowed to enrich some.
On the military level the US started military exercise with Israel to show the Iranian its ability to defend the Hebrew state against ground to ground strikes. The freezing of the Russian S-300 air defence rockets make the Iranian army incapable of defending the nuclear reactors against any probable strikes.
The BBC and the Israeli daily Haartez told about direct talks between an Iranian delegate headed by Ali Asghar Soltania the nuclear negotiator and an Israeli delegate headed by Meriav-Zefari Odis the Israeli nuclear disarmament responsible under an Australian sponsorship last September in Cairo. During the meeting Soltania assured the Odis that Iran does not pose a threat to Israel and denied intentions of producing nuclear weapons. Odis declared that nuclear disarmament could be discussed after final peace. While the office of the Israeli Premier confirmed the meeting the Iranians denied it. However they did not deny what Soltania declared whether his words were said in direct talks or during the seminar. This means that before going to negotiations with great forces the Iranian corrected what their rhetoric president said frequently.
The conclusions are first Iran has no objections to the presence of the Hebrew state. Other regional powers sent clear message to Iran that a deal with the West does not mean that they will succumb to it as they can move armed movements that can destabilize Iran. Both Russia and China will support the US if sanctions are inevitable to solve the Iranian file. Nuclear disarmament may have a chance. However its negotiations should be parallel to the peace process. With the early signs of success of Obama´s soft power policy other steps should be taken. The most important is resumption of peace negotiations that opens doors to nuclear disarmament. The second is establishing an organization that enrich uranium for the entire region for peaceful purposes and all countries should be subjected to the same regulations to inspect and control the use of the radioisotope.
The American-Russian deal about having the anti-missile systems in East Europe led to better understanding between the two great powers regarding the Iranian file. The Russian announced that they would support sanctions to be imposed on Iran if it failed to have a deal in its negotiations with the great force. The Russians declared that they canceled delivery of the S-300 air-defence system to Iran due to political reasons. The first reason was a direct request from Israel that for geopolitical reasons, Russia wants to keep a certain level with good contact and relations with the Hebrew state.
The Iranian government faces internal troubles that first limit its ability to deal with more sanctions. The rich oil country could not provide the prosperity for its people due to corruption and spending on the military apparatus and the nuclear institutions. The opposition is spreading among students and the middle class that threatening the existence of the regime. There are the armed minorities that apparently decided to confront the central government. The Azeri groups are present in the North, the Kurds are in the North West, and the Arabs of Arabistan are in the South West while the Blutch are present in the South West. The last group poses the greatest threat. Since ages the hostilities between them and Tehran was present and they played the biggest role to prevent the spread of Safawya Empire and the Shiite faith to central Asia. The Daily Telegraph published in 25 February 2007 that the US decided to finance separatists in Iran. That is why the Iranians accused the US of plotting the last terrorist attacks that killed high rank officers in the Revolutionary Guard in Sistan-Bluchistan. Jundallah fights since many years and it bombed a bus that was carrying Revolutionary Guard soldiers in 2007. This group and drug traffickers killed about three thousand soldiers since during the last thirty years.
However the interference of Iran in internal affair of regional countries makes all possibilities open for abettors. Besides, Iran accused Pakistani intelligence of supporting Jundallah group that was responsible about this terrorist attack. While all regional players suffer from terrorism, some internal causes should be resolved if Iran would succeed to face these groups. The atrocities against Sunnis and other races and the favorism of Persian race and Shiite faith are the real causes behind the armed movements´ attacks. When others use them against Iran there is a risk of backfire at their supporters. Most probably the Pakistanis learnt this lesson after Taliban became their security nightmare.
The Revolutionary Guard commanders threatened that they would fight this group even if they were forced to chase them in the Pakistani land. This will be the grave mistake of Tehran as this step just unit tribes in the Iranian part with the Pakistani part of Baluchistan. The mountainous geography will just play against Iranian army as it does against NATO in Afghanistan. The only way to keep security in tribal area especially in mountainous area is the agreement with tribes´ leaders.
On the economic level the US threatened that it would impose sanctions on importing gasoline to Iran. Iran produces about 40% of its gasoline need and imports about 60%. This step would destabilize the country. Two years ago when the Iranian government dealt with gasoline deficiency and was forced to increase its prices riots erupted. After the election problems in Iran the government is not likely to risk another big internal problem.
Another thing some reports told that the US promised China to have its oil requirements from the Emirati oil instead of Iranian oil to tighten the noose on the Iranian revenues and to win the Chinese support for sanctions.
The Iranian first refused France as a uranium enrichment center because France stopped nuclear cooperation with Iran before. However Russia froze some military cooperation. The Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani feared that the West may deceive Iran. It is supposed the Iran will 1200 kilograms of its 1500 stockpile to Russia and part will go to France to be further enriched to 20%. The Western intelligences doubt that Iran may have about twelve secret sites like the secret reactor near Qom city. The talks now are about how much Iran should send and if it would be allowed to enrich some.
On the military level the US started military exercise with Israel to show the Iranian its ability to defend the Hebrew state against ground to ground strikes. The freezing of the Russian S-300 air defence rockets make the Iranian army incapable of defending the nuclear reactors against any probable strikes.
The BBC and the Israeli daily Haartez told about direct talks between an Iranian delegate headed by Ali Asghar Soltania the nuclear negotiator and an Israeli delegate headed by Meriav-Zefari Odis the Israeli nuclear disarmament responsible under an Australian sponsorship last September in Cairo. During the meeting Soltania assured the Odis that Iran does not pose a threat to Israel and denied intentions of producing nuclear weapons. Odis declared that nuclear disarmament could be discussed after final peace. While the office of the Israeli Premier confirmed the meeting the Iranians denied it. However they did not deny what Soltania declared whether his words were said in direct talks or during the seminar. This means that before going to negotiations with great forces the Iranian corrected what their rhetoric president said frequently.
The conclusions are first Iran has no objections to the presence of the Hebrew state. Other regional powers sent clear message to Iran that a deal with the West does not mean that they will succumb to it as they can move armed movements that can destabilize Iran. Both Russia and China will support the US if sanctions are inevitable to solve the Iranian file. Nuclear disarmament may have a chance. However its negotiations should be parallel to the peace process. With the early signs of success of Obama´s soft power policy other steps should be taken. The most important is resumption of peace negotiations that opens doors to nuclear disarmament. The second is establishing an organization that enrich uranium for the entire region for peaceful purposes and all countries should be subjected to the same regulations to inspect and control the use of the radioisotope.
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