Super Tuesday: Obama Emerges Stronger
Rizwan Ghani
February 06, 2008
The narrow difference between Hillary (5, 763,143 ) and Obama´s (5,687, 890) votes, delegates Hillary (582/872) and Obama (562/793) and states Hillary (8) and Obama (13) show that Obama has made phenomenal progress. Missouri State´s win will go long way in strengthening Obama´s position keeping in view the yardstick of state´s 26-year history of presidential nomination race in which with the exception of one candidate all those who won bell weather state went on to win the presidential election.
The Democrat presidential runners need to win 2025 delegates in a proportional system (votes are divided between contestants) to win party nomination for party´s candidacy. The Republicans on the other hand need 1,191 delegates to win party´s nomination in a win all system where the candidate who wins the majority wins all delegates. For example John McCain by virtue of winning New York won all its delegates whereas Obama despite winning 13 states in Super Tuesday is trailing Hillary by 20 delegates because unlike Republicans delegates are divided on the basis of proportional votes. Hillary´s victories in golden states including California has given her edge in delegate total.
Moving on from Super Tuesday which all about numbers and results show that Obama has emerged stronger than ever. It would now be interesting to see how things unfold US elections in terms of overall Democrat and Republican strategies and day to day events.
The news of Hillary´s great California victory have been soured by the grumbling voiced against voting irregularities in California in op-ed page of foreign press, Blowing Bubbles by Dan Glaister (http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/dan_glaister/2008/02/well_they_didnt_find_any.html). This is the second time that concerns are being voiced against voting irregularities. Earlier it was New Hampshire. The culprits: combination of high tech low-tech glitches, locked stations and non-availability/shortage of ballots. These are the things that can be and should have been avoided because perceptions are deadlier than realities.
America has not forgotten the controversial electronic voting machines of last two presidential elections. Administration´s failure to end the dragging controversies over the machines and sharing of software details with political parties has not helped to quell the smoldering distrust from the past. In closely contested ballots such as Hillary and Obama´s these issues need to addressed at the outset for Transparency of current elections and that of upcoming Nov. election; quell rumors and allow democracy to deliver its verdict.
Reportedly, Obama camp managed to contain uproar following New Hampshire voting. However, it is hoped all concerned will ensure that such incidents; isolated or otherwise are not repeated in future and that too against a particular camp.
The Super Tuesday figures show that Obama´s voter appeal has widened and turned kaleidoscopic. He represented all shades of American people from day one but now it is official. The voting pattern has reinforced Obama´s stature of national level politician.
Keeping in view the voting pattern I am of the opinion that Obama by virtue of getting most votes from young and educated Americans leading America that is informed, adventurous and willing to reach out. An America that is hoping for change. Hillary on the other hand represents status quo because of her older voters and women supporters who inherently stand for status quo.
There is no doubt that there is plenty of political drama left because despite half Democrat states having gone to vote the party is still far electing a presidential nominee. But what media is not ready to talk about is the fact that Hillary is running out of reserves. It would be interesting to see how Clinton campaign musters more votes as numbers of American youth rallying around Obama continue to swell.
The upcoming one on one debates between Hillary and Obama can only make things better for Obama because Iraq is one of the rallying calls of Obama campaign and America of 2008 following 2006 Congressional elections is in no mood to let go Iraq and compromise on US troop withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. The goal posts are defined and Obama and Hillary have taken their positions. Whosoever will concede; converge or move towards center will lose his or her identity. And in it lies the future of US foreign policy and world status as Jonathan Freedland put it in his article It's no beauty pageant - there are real differences between the candidates (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2253148,00.html)
If the debates go ahead as planned will allow Obama to grow stronger provided he follows strategy of focusing on bigger picture than getting entangled in tactics of Hillary campaign of one election at a time. Bill Clinton´s prediction a fortnight ago that Democratic nomination will be wrapped up on Feb.5 is gone. And now Hillary Campaign is left without a plan. It would be interesting to see how they gather funds, widen voter base and defend Iraq policy because Obama campaign is raising more funds (Jan. Obama raised over 30 million against Hillary´s 13 million) and Super Tuesday has shown that number of young American voters will grow and grow.
I therefore am of the opinion that Bill Clinton´s prediction was right but from Obama´s perspective because Super Tuesday because he has emerged from the shadows of being an underdog to greater strengths and if he manages to keep the battle restricted to issues he will be invincible. He has to resist converging on issues like health care, corporate America, corruption, Iraq which Clinton camp will try its utmost to do because in congregation lies Hillary´s route to victory-Obama no bars. Most of the issues that Obama needs to stand up for are given my article US Elections: Super Tuesday (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/51275).
In terms of Republicans, Romney could have served the party better. It appears that Huckabee by staying in the race will serve McCain not democracy. But I may be wrong because McCain´s return is itself unprecedented therefore if Romney and Huckabee want to continue in the name of democracy so shall rest of America-as Shakespeare wrote if music be food of love play on. So can both Republicans.
The international community will now be watching Obama more closely because in his position on Iraq lies the fate of Bush´s war against terrorism. In it is the question of 500 billion plus defense budget (against China´s 2006, 45 billion dollar budget) or two trillion dollars Iraq war spending depending on how it is interpreted. All these figures ultimately come around to add up in US economy, health cover plan, quality education, housing etc. It would be interesting to see how Obama balances domestic needs versus US war expenses.
Finally, in my view Obama has reached a stage where he can defeat Hillary if he can manage to avoid ´converging (that is take similar position as that of Hillary) and manage to hold on to his side of goalpost on the foreign policy including his 2002 Iraq message which condemned war as dumb war and a rash war. Similarly, on the domestic front uphold his pledges on issues including economy, health, alternate energy and 270 times disparity in corporate pay and average worker. In addition he should avoid traps of national security and immigration. It is hoped that Obama will walk the walk in the name of democracy and national interest as millions of Americans look up to him as beacon of change and hope. There is no letting down from this day onwards as Obama himself said time for change has come.
The Democrat presidential runners need to win 2025 delegates in a proportional system (votes are divided between contestants) to win party nomination for party´s candidacy. The Republicans on the other hand need 1,191 delegates to win party´s nomination in a win all system where the candidate who wins the majority wins all delegates. For example John McCain by virtue of winning New York won all its delegates whereas Obama despite winning 13 states in Super Tuesday is trailing Hillary by 20 delegates because unlike Republicans delegates are divided on the basis of proportional votes. Hillary´s victories in golden states including California has given her edge in delegate total.
Moving on from Super Tuesday which all about numbers and results show that Obama has emerged stronger than ever. It would now be interesting to see how things unfold US elections in terms of overall Democrat and Republican strategies and day to day events.
The news of Hillary´s great California victory have been soured by the grumbling voiced against voting irregularities in California in op-ed page of foreign press, Blowing Bubbles by Dan Glaister (http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/dan_glaister/2008/02/well_they_didnt_find_any.html). This is the second time that concerns are being voiced against voting irregularities. Earlier it was New Hampshire. The culprits: combination of high tech low-tech glitches, locked stations and non-availability/shortage of ballots. These are the things that can be and should have been avoided because perceptions are deadlier than realities.
America has not forgotten the controversial electronic voting machines of last two presidential elections. Administration´s failure to end the dragging controversies over the machines and sharing of software details with political parties has not helped to quell the smoldering distrust from the past. In closely contested ballots such as Hillary and Obama´s these issues need to addressed at the outset for Transparency of current elections and that of upcoming Nov. election; quell rumors and allow democracy to deliver its verdict.
Reportedly, Obama camp managed to contain uproar following New Hampshire voting. However, it is hoped all concerned will ensure that such incidents; isolated or otherwise are not repeated in future and that too against a particular camp.
The Super Tuesday figures show that Obama´s voter appeal has widened and turned kaleidoscopic. He represented all shades of American people from day one but now it is official. The voting pattern has reinforced Obama´s stature of national level politician.
Keeping in view the voting pattern I am of the opinion that Obama by virtue of getting most votes from young and educated Americans leading America that is informed, adventurous and willing to reach out. An America that is hoping for change. Hillary on the other hand represents status quo because of her older voters and women supporters who inherently stand for status quo.
There is no doubt that there is plenty of political drama left because despite half Democrat states having gone to vote the party is still far electing a presidential nominee. But what media is not ready to talk about is the fact that Hillary is running out of reserves. It would be interesting to see how Clinton campaign musters more votes as numbers of American youth rallying around Obama continue to swell.
The upcoming one on one debates between Hillary and Obama can only make things better for Obama because Iraq is one of the rallying calls of Obama campaign and America of 2008 following 2006 Congressional elections is in no mood to let go Iraq and compromise on US troop withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. The goal posts are defined and Obama and Hillary have taken their positions. Whosoever will concede; converge or move towards center will lose his or her identity. And in it lies the future of US foreign policy and world status as Jonathan Freedland put it in his article It's no beauty pageant - there are real differences between the candidates (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2253148,00.html)
If the debates go ahead as planned will allow Obama to grow stronger provided he follows strategy of focusing on bigger picture than getting entangled in tactics of Hillary campaign of one election at a time. Bill Clinton´s prediction a fortnight ago that Democratic nomination will be wrapped up on Feb.5 is gone. And now Hillary Campaign is left without a plan. It would be interesting to see how they gather funds, widen voter base and defend Iraq policy because Obama campaign is raising more funds (Jan. Obama raised over 30 million against Hillary´s 13 million) and Super Tuesday has shown that number of young American voters will grow and grow.
I therefore am of the opinion that Bill Clinton´s prediction was right but from Obama´s perspective because Super Tuesday because he has emerged from the shadows of being an underdog to greater strengths and if he manages to keep the battle restricted to issues he will be invincible. He has to resist converging on issues like health care, corporate America, corruption, Iraq which Clinton camp will try its utmost to do because in congregation lies Hillary´s route to victory-Obama no bars. Most of the issues that Obama needs to stand up for are given my article US Elections: Super Tuesday (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/51275).
In terms of Republicans, Romney could have served the party better. It appears that Huckabee by staying in the race will serve McCain not democracy. But I may be wrong because McCain´s return is itself unprecedented therefore if Romney and Huckabee want to continue in the name of democracy so shall rest of America-as Shakespeare wrote if music be food of love play on. So can both Republicans.
The international community will now be watching Obama more closely because in his position on Iraq lies the fate of Bush´s war against terrorism. In it is the question of 500 billion plus defense budget (against China´s 2006, 45 billion dollar budget) or two trillion dollars Iraq war spending depending on how it is interpreted. All these figures ultimately come around to add up in US economy, health cover plan, quality education, housing etc. It would be interesting to see how Obama balances domestic needs versus US war expenses.
Finally, in my view Obama has reached a stage where he can defeat Hillary if he can manage to avoid ´converging (that is take similar position as that of Hillary) and manage to hold on to his side of goalpost on the foreign policy including his 2002 Iraq message which condemned war as dumb war and a rash war. Similarly, on the domestic front uphold his pledges on issues including economy, health, alternate energy and 270 times disparity in corporate pay and average worker. In addition he should avoid traps of national security and immigration. It is hoped that Obama will walk the walk in the name of democracy and national interest as millions of Americans look up to him as beacon of change and hope. There is no letting down from this day onwards as Obama himself said time for change has come.
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