Tzipi Livni won -- or, at least she did not lose Israel's elections. Can she form a new government?
Marian Houk
February 12, 2009
By the narrowest of leads, Israel's Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Tzipi Livni seems to have won the most votes in yesterday's Israeli parliamentary elections.
The Israeli election commission now gives Livni's Kadima Party 28 seats while the next highest party has 27, and some votes are still being counted.
At the very least, Livni did not lose -- as many forecasters had predicted.
Yet, there is still a chance she may not get to form the next Israeli government.
If the apparent runner-up in the election, Benjamin ("Bibi") Netanyahu's Likud Party, is able to demonstrate to Israel's State President Shimon Peres that he is in a better position to put together a new government than Livni, that would pose a real dilemma.
The morning after the balloting, the Likud Party is said to be able to assemble an emergent right-wing coalition that commands some 64 to 66 seats, a majority in the 120-member parliament, or Knesset. On that basis Netanyahu is claiming that he -- now, a leader of both the national and religious right -- is better placed to form the next government coalition, and should therefore be tapped as the country's next Prime Minister.
If Netanyahu succeeds, would Peres still give Livni a first shot?
Kadima splintered from the Likud Party a few years ago.
But, hold on -- why should be so absorbed by these elections -- and all the attendant exotic minutiae of the Israeli political scene?
The only reason for such international interest is to know if there is any reasonable chance to see a solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
Livni's placement in the polls suggest that Israel's voters have not rejected continuing peace negotiations with the Palestinians, despite the heady anti-Arab/anti-Palestinian atmosphere in Israel that has only deepened with the national feelings of justification for the recent 22-day military operation in Gaza.
Israel's President Peres, a former member of the supposedly-left "Labor" party who defected to join Sharon's Kadima party, will formally ask either Livni or Netanyahu to begin efforts to form a new government, probably next week.
Peres has always favored negotiations with the Palestinians -- but Netanyahu said the negotiations should be given less importance than efforts to improve the economy in the West Bank. Netanyahu's position is largely unexplained, but he seems to go along with the views of many right-wing Israeli military officers who say they believe there should be no territorial concessions to the Palestinians until they have successfully passed an extended period of probationary good behavior that may extend from 25 to 50 or even 100 years. Only then, these officers say, should Israel begin to think about talking peace, and division of the land land.
Israel's relations with its own Arab/Palestinian citizens, a minority of about 25 percent of the country's population, was also at center stage in this election.
An Israeli in Tel Aviv who describes himself semi-mockingly as "extreme left" recently said that it is must be understood that "Nobody in Israel likes the Arabs".
Even Kadima, of course. Haaretz's Akiva Eldar wrote bluntly today, pondering Kadima's victory, that "perhaps the secret Kadima code is in the formula political strategist Reuven Adler used to lead Sharon and Olmert to power and repeated it for Livni: Kill as many Arabs as possible and talk as much as possible about peace". Eldar's article can be read here.
There is no other place in the world where these racial/ethnic animosities are expressed with such lack of embarrassment, and such lack of self-consciousness.
In response, fear and anger among Israel's Arab/Palestinian citizens about this anti-Arab atmosphere ran high in the run-up to these elections. They were particularly furious about the support for Liberman's pledge to make Israeli Arab/Palestinians swear or sign a loyalty oath to Israel as a Jewish State. In recent years, Israel's Arab/Palestinians have regarded this issue as a warning of imminent "population transfer" that would amount to an ethnic cleansing.
Many of Israel's Arab/Palestinian voters said they would not participate in the elections. Yet many others appeared to have rallied.
Yet, somehow, the Arab political parties apparently did not lose any ground in the vote. These parties may have even gained a seat. Was it an indication of a large Israeli Arab/Palestinian turnout? Or, did some of these parties benefit from the votes of a number of disaffected "leftist" Jewish Israelis?
In any case, there is no sign that these parties would consent, even if asked, to join a coalition with Livni. It would be a pity, however, if the Israeli-Arab parties would not be willing to join a coalition that might work seriously -- even if only because of possible future American pressure and/or encouragement -- for the successful implementation of negotiations with the Palestinians. The Israeli-Arab parties could insist on guarantees that there would be no threats to their continuing presence in Israel, and to their full participation in the economic, social, cultural and political life of the country.
Time Magazine reported that "The Arab parties, which have a total of 11 seats, are also unlikely to join a Livni-led coalition because they remain angry over the Gaza invasion last December. Israeli Arabs voted in big numbers after Lieberman insisted that all Israeli Arabs take a loyalty oath or lose their citizenship. Jamal Zahalka, leader of the Arab party Balad, also said that Israel's assault in Gaza also rallied voters. "The Zionist parties all supported what happened in Gaza, so Arab voters reacted by voting for us and not the Zionist parties." This article can be read in full here.
Livni's enormously contentious behavior during Israel's Gaza operation -- threatening more and worse -- turned a number of potential supporters from Israel's "left" against her, as most pre-election predictions indicated a victorious Israeli "right".
Livni said hours after the polls closed that she wanted "a national unity government that would be founded on the large parties in Israel from both Kadima's left and right".
She also said: "I entered politics when there were camps that fought against each other unrelentingly -- the land of Israel camp versus the peace camp ... And today, I hear the words īnational campī once again, and I want to say today in a clear voice: the land of Israel does not belong to the right, just as peace does not belong to the left."
The political spectrum in Israel is unlike any other place in the world.
And, one of the most striking aspects of this election is the range of radically different concepts of the Israeli political spectrum.
"Left", in general parlance in Israel, has tended to mean pro-peace. "Extreme left" means willing to get on with negotiations with the Palestinians to the extent of being prepared to make explicit territorial concessions. "Right" generally indicates an anti-Arab and anti-Palestinian stance -- including favoring of the ongoing and even vigorous settlement project in the West Bank.
The Kadima ("Future") party that Livni heads (founded by the now-stricken Ariel Sharon, who is apparently in a vegetative state in a nursing home in Israel) is now described by some as "centrist", while others call Kadima "center-right".
Israeli analyst Gerald Steinberg yesterday told BBC World Television's Lyse Doucet that Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home) Party was "right", while he described the two leading parties (Kadima and Likud) as "center".
As Kadima leader Livni headed for a meeting with Lieberman about a possible coalition, the Jerusalem Post reported that "a Kadima official told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday that [Liberman's] Israel Beiteinu was more of a natural partner than Likud, and that Lieberman's party was 'not really in the right-wing bloc ... They are not on the Right on the issue of a two-state solution. They support that solution, but they want a land swap. They are not on the Right on state-religion issues and they are not on the Right on the issue of changing the system of government. Lieberman is pragmatic and he can definitely be in the coalition," the top Kadima official said". This account can be read in full here.
Livni herself said in December, in an interview with army radio, that "My solution for maintaining a Jewish and democratic state of Israel is to have two distinct national entities ... And among other things I will also be able to approach the Palestinian residents of Israel, those whom we call Arab Israelis, and tell them: 'Your national aspirations lie elsewhere'."
Kadima member Avi Dichter, Israel's Minister of Internal Security and apparently an ally of Livni, told the Jerusalem Post that "We represent the center. Ehud Barak is the right wing of the Labor party, and Binyamin Netanyahu is the Left wing of the Likud. Both of those parties have tried to move into the center during the election campaign, but in truth, they are on opposite political poles. Livni is at the center of the centrist party". This JPost article can be read in full here.
One of Netanyahu's main campaign slogans was the need to deal with a potential threat from Iran -- and even to go it alone if necessary, even after the U.S. Administration of George W. Bush indicated in its final months in office that it would not go along with an Israeli military strike.
Netanyahu was not only playing on the fears, anxieties and security concerns that are thought to plague the Israeli electorate, he also appeared to be trying to show up, or to snub, or to trump the American government position that a military attack on Iran now is not in line with U.S. interests. In any case, talk about the Iranian menace appears to have disappeared overnight.
The interesting Iranian-Israeli analyst Meir Javendanfar has just blogged about his "Miserable Voting Experience" in these Israeli elections, writing: "Then I heard Bibi and his talk of deposing Hamas. The Iraqi regime change experience was bad enough for the US. It would be absurd to let a leader who talks about a similar adventure come to power in Israel. Stopping him became my priority. This is when I realized that Ehud Barak (head of Labour party) had no chance of running against Netanyahu for the post of Prime Minister. So it was time to get the protractor out for the second time. I decided to turn 45 degrees to the right again, to Tzipi Livni. She was the best moderate choice who has a respectable chance of standing against Netantahu. 90 degrees away from my conscience, I went to cast my vote today. As I placed my vote in the ballot box, I broke into a sweat. Tzipi Livni is a far better politician than Bibi, but she was not my first choice. She was my third. And now my body had joined my heart in protesting. It goes to show, that even when you have a full range of choices, it doesn't mean that you pick the one you ideally want. Unlike 2006, my voting experience today was a miserable one. I don't want to imagine how I will feel if Likud wins. I know how President Ahmadinejad will feel. He will be happy". Javendanfar's post can be read in full here.
Despite Netanyahu's life-long effort to align himself with America's "neo-Conservatives", he reportedly had a hard time getting booked for meetings with former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during many of her visits to the region in 2008 to promote negotiations launched at Annapolis in November 2007 that were supposed to lead to the creation of a Palestinian State by the end of the term in office of former U.S. President George W. Bush on 20 January 2009 at the latest.
Netanyahu spoke out in the waning days of the electoral campaign against the "division" of Jerusalem -- one of the main issues under negotiation -- and in favor of maintaining the West Bank settlements that the U.S. government has criticized as "unhelpful".
Lieberman, however, has proposed re-drawing Israel's borders to exclude Arab Israeli communities, giving them in effect the Palestinian Authority, while the territory would be exchanged for the right of Jewish settlers to remain in the West Bank.
This is similar to a proposal reportedly discussed directly between Israel's sitting Prime Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to give all the neighborhoods of north-east Jerusalem over to the Palestinian Authority. Livni has said that the subject of Jerusalem was not dealt with in her year-long negotiations with the Palestinian negotiating team lead by former Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia (Abu Alaa) -- but Livni was not part of the direct Olmert-Abbas on Jerusalem, giving her "deniability".
Both Lieberman and Netanyahu have urged going back into Gaza to finish the fight against Hamas, while Livni has only issued tough warnings about reprisals if Hamas does not behave well.
Nabil Abu Rudineh, official spokesman and advisor to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, told the Voice of America last night that "no negotiations can go on with any Prime Minister as long as Israel maintains Jewish settlements in the West Bank".
While Netanyahu staked out a policy challenge, Livni has not spoken out about the settlements. She has been the head of the Israeli negotiating team during the Annapolis process -- which the Israelis have insisted should be bilateral and secret. The few leaks that emerged toward the end of 2008 did not appear to originate from Livni. Abu Rudineh said that "There were some obstacles with Olmert and Livni concerning many issues. We didn't close any files. On the contrary, the settlements continue and we hope that with the change which has taken place in America, there should be change in Israel."
Netanyahu may have hoped that by insisting on these elections, as he did, and by gaining a strong showing, he would prove to the U.S. Administration that there is no support among the Israeli public for the Annapolis negotiating process.
This ambition has been just checked -- but just barely.
Haaretz's Gideon Levy told Voice of America after the polls closed and the first results came in last night that "people who look forward [to] any kind of progress in the peace process should be happy tonight."
But, even with the "left" Meretz, and the "traditional left" Labor party led by former Prime Minister and current Defense Minister Ehud Barak -- which both showed considerable losses in this election -- Livni will still be short a few votes from commanding a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Barak's Labor Party had its lowest results ever - winning only 13 seats, while Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu apparently won 15, coming in with the third-strongest showing.
Coalition negotiations will be probably be difficult, and will involve a lot of extremely unattractive "horse-trading". Advisers to Livni and Netanyahu both say they do not want to envisage any sort of rotation of the Prime Ministership -- which would be a nightmare scenario in any case, in which politicking and back-stabbing would surely take priority over any real policy issues.
One analysis published in the Jerusalem Post today reports that "Kadima's strategy, and the central message of its campaign, was to convince the public that the election was about choosing between Livni and Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu. As Election Day loomed, Kadima remained steady, Lieberman rose, and the Likud started to lose altitude. Kadima's strategists intensified their message: 'It's either Tzipi or Bibi' to reach 'strategic"' voters who wanted to limit the size of the right wing bloc". This article can be read in full here.
One of the strategic advisers to the Kadima campaign was political strategist Eyal Arad, who had previously worked closely with Sharon -- after breaking with Benjamin Netanyahu, for whom he had worked for years, both in New York when Netanyahu was Israel's Ambassador to the UN, and after his return and entry into politics in Israel. Arad told Israel television last night that Netanyahu will NOT be the next Israeli prime minister.
The Christian Science Monitor reported today that Arad, one of Livni's top advisers, said in an interview with Israel's Channel One that "The mandate is hers, and she will form this government".
The next government will, therefore, probably be quite unstable -- and many analysts predict new elections will have to be called within the next year or so.
Meanwhile, an enormous amount of talent, time, money, and energy is consumed in Israel's frequent election campaigns, while millions of Palestinians -- and others around the world -- wait for moves towards peace.
The Israeli election commission now gives Livni's Kadima Party 28 seats while the next highest party has 27, and some votes are still being counted.
At the very least, Livni did not lose -- as many forecasters had predicted.
Yet, there is still a chance she may not get to form the next Israeli government.
If the apparent runner-up in the election, Benjamin ("Bibi") Netanyahu's Likud Party, is able to demonstrate to Israel's State President Shimon Peres that he is in a better position to put together a new government than Livni, that would pose a real dilemma.
The morning after the balloting, the Likud Party is said to be able to assemble an emergent right-wing coalition that commands some 64 to 66 seats, a majority in the 120-member parliament, or Knesset. On that basis Netanyahu is claiming that he -- now, a leader of both the national and religious right -- is better placed to form the next government coalition, and should therefore be tapped as the country's next Prime Minister.
If Netanyahu succeeds, would Peres still give Livni a first shot?
Kadima splintered from the Likud Party a few years ago.
But, hold on -- why should be so absorbed by these elections -- and all the attendant exotic minutiae of the Israeli political scene?
The only reason for such international interest is to know if there is any reasonable chance to see a solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
Livni's placement in the polls suggest that Israel's voters have not rejected continuing peace negotiations with the Palestinians, despite the heady anti-Arab/anti-Palestinian atmosphere in Israel that has only deepened with the national feelings of justification for the recent 22-day military operation in Gaza.
Israel's President Peres, a former member of the supposedly-left "Labor" party who defected to join Sharon's Kadima party, will formally ask either Livni or Netanyahu to begin efforts to form a new government, probably next week.
Peres has always favored negotiations with the Palestinians -- but Netanyahu said the negotiations should be given less importance than efforts to improve the economy in the West Bank. Netanyahu's position is largely unexplained, but he seems to go along with the views of many right-wing Israeli military officers who say they believe there should be no territorial concessions to the Palestinians until they have successfully passed an extended period of probationary good behavior that may extend from 25 to 50 or even 100 years. Only then, these officers say, should Israel begin to think about talking peace, and division of the land land.
Israel's relations with its own Arab/Palestinian citizens, a minority of about 25 percent of the country's population, was also at center stage in this election.
An Israeli in Tel Aviv who describes himself semi-mockingly as "extreme left" recently said that it is must be understood that "Nobody in Israel likes the Arabs".
Even Kadima, of course. Haaretz's Akiva Eldar wrote bluntly today, pondering Kadima's victory, that "perhaps the secret Kadima code is in the formula political strategist Reuven Adler used to lead Sharon and Olmert to power and repeated it for Livni: Kill as many Arabs as possible and talk as much as possible about peace". Eldar's article can be read here.
There is no other place in the world where these racial/ethnic animosities are expressed with such lack of embarrassment, and such lack of self-consciousness.
In response, fear and anger among Israel's Arab/Palestinian citizens about this anti-Arab atmosphere ran high in the run-up to these elections. They were particularly furious about the support for Liberman's pledge to make Israeli Arab/Palestinians swear or sign a loyalty oath to Israel as a Jewish State. In recent years, Israel's Arab/Palestinians have regarded this issue as a warning of imminent "population transfer" that would amount to an ethnic cleansing.
Many of Israel's Arab/Palestinian voters said they would not participate in the elections. Yet many others appeared to have rallied.
Yet, somehow, the Arab political parties apparently did not lose any ground in the vote. These parties may have even gained a seat. Was it an indication of a large Israeli Arab/Palestinian turnout? Or, did some of these parties benefit from the votes of a number of disaffected "leftist" Jewish Israelis?
In any case, there is no sign that these parties would consent, even if asked, to join a coalition with Livni. It would be a pity, however, if the Israeli-Arab parties would not be willing to join a coalition that might work seriously -- even if only because of possible future American pressure and/or encouragement -- for the successful implementation of negotiations with the Palestinians. The Israeli-Arab parties could insist on guarantees that there would be no threats to their continuing presence in Israel, and to their full participation in the economic, social, cultural and political life of the country.
Time Magazine reported that "The Arab parties, which have a total of 11 seats, are also unlikely to join a Livni-led coalition because they remain angry over the Gaza invasion last December. Israeli Arabs voted in big numbers after Lieberman insisted that all Israeli Arabs take a loyalty oath or lose their citizenship. Jamal Zahalka, leader of the Arab party Balad, also said that Israel's assault in Gaza also rallied voters. "The Zionist parties all supported what happened in Gaza, so Arab voters reacted by voting for us and not the Zionist parties." This article can be read in full here.
Livni's enormously contentious behavior during Israel's Gaza operation -- threatening more and worse -- turned a number of potential supporters from Israel's "left" against her, as most pre-election predictions indicated a victorious Israeli "right".
Livni said hours after the polls closed that she wanted "a national unity government that would be founded on the large parties in Israel from both Kadima's left and right".
She also said: "I entered politics when there were camps that fought against each other unrelentingly -- the land of Israel camp versus the peace camp ... And today, I hear the words īnational campī once again, and I want to say today in a clear voice: the land of Israel does not belong to the right, just as peace does not belong to the left."
The political spectrum in Israel is unlike any other place in the world.
And, one of the most striking aspects of this election is the range of radically different concepts of the Israeli political spectrum.
"Left", in general parlance in Israel, has tended to mean pro-peace. "Extreme left" means willing to get on with negotiations with the Palestinians to the extent of being prepared to make explicit territorial concessions. "Right" generally indicates an anti-Arab and anti-Palestinian stance -- including favoring of the ongoing and even vigorous settlement project in the West Bank.
The Kadima ("Future") party that Livni heads (founded by the now-stricken Ariel Sharon, who is apparently in a vegetative state in a nursing home in Israel) is now described by some as "centrist", while others call Kadima "center-right".
Israeli analyst Gerald Steinberg yesterday told BBC World Television's Lyse Doucet that Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home) Party was "right", while he described the two leading parties (Kadima and Likud) as "center".
As Kadima leader Livni headed for a meeting with Lieberman about a possible coalition, the Jerusalem Post reported that "a Kadima official told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday that [Liberman's] Israel Beiteinu was more of a natural partner than Likud, and that Lieberman's party was 'not really in the right-wing bloc ... They are not on the Right on the issue of a two-state solution. They support that solution, but they want a land swap. They are not on the Right on state-religion issues and they are not on the Right on the issue of changing the system of government. Lieberman is pragmatic and he can definitely be in the coalition," the top Kadima official said". This account can be read in full here.
Livni herself said in December, in an interview with army radio, that "My solution for maintaining a Jewish and democratic state of Israel is to have two distinct national entities ... And among other things I will also be able to approach the Palestinian residents of Israel, those whom we call Arab Israelis, and tell them: 'Your national aspirations lie elsewhere'."
Kadima member Avi Dichter, Israel's Minister of Internal Security and apparently an ally of Livni, told the Jerusalem Post that "We represent the center. Ehud Barak is the right wing of the Labor party, and Binyamin Netanyahu is the Left wing of the Likud. Both of those parties have tried to move into the center during the election campaign, but in truth, they are on opposite political poles. Livni is at the center of the centrist party". This JPost article can be read in full here.
One of Netanyahu's main campaign slogans was the need to deal with a potential threat from Iran -- and even to go it alone if necessary, even after the U.S. Administration of George W. Bush indicated in its final months in office that it would not go along with an Israeli military strike.
Netanyahu was not only playing on the fears, anxieties and security concerns that are thought to plague the Israeli electorate, he also appeared to be trying to show up, or to snub, or to trump the American government position that a military attack on Iran now is not in line with U.S. interests. In any case, talk about the Iranian menace appears to have disappeared overnight.
The interesting Iranian-Israeli analyst Meir Javendanfar has just blogged about his "Miserable Voting Experience" in these Israeli elections, writing: "Then I heard Bibi and his talk of deposing Hamas. The Iraqi regime change experience was bad enough for the US. It would be absurd to let a leader who talks about a similar adventure come to power in Israel. Stopping him became my priority. This is when I realized that Ehud Barak (head of Labour party) had no chance of running against Netanyahu for the post of Prime Minister. So it was time to get the protractor out for the second time. I decided to turn 45 degrees to the right again, to Tzipi Livni. She was the best moderate choice who has a respectable chance of standing against Netantahu. 90 degrees away from my conscience, I went to cast my vote today. As I placed my vote in the ballot box, I broke into a sweat. Tzipi Livni is a far better politician than Bibi, but she was not my first choice. She was my third. And now my body had joined my heart in protesting. It goes to show, that even when you have a full range of choices, it doesn't mean that you pick the one you ideally want. Unlike 2006, my voting experience today was a miserable one. I don't want to imagine how I will feel if Likud wins. I know how President Ahmadinejad will feel. He will be happy". Javendanfar's post can be read in full here.
Despite Netanyahu's life-long effort to align himself with America's "neo-Conservatives", he reportedly had a hard time getting booked for meetings with former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during many of her visits to the region in 2008 to promote negotiations launched at Annapolis in November 2007 that were supposed to lead to the creation of a Palestinian State by the end of the term in office of former U.S. President George W. Bush on 20 January 2009 at the latest.
Netanyahu spoke out in the waning days of the electoral campaign against the "division" of Jerusalem -- one of the main issues under negotiation -- and in favor of maintaining the West Bank settlements that the U.S. government has criticized as "unhelpful".
Lieberman, however, has proposed re-drawing Israel's borders to exclude Arab Israeli communities, giving them in effect the Palestinian Authority, while the territory would be exchanged for the right of Jewish settlers to remain in the West Bank.
This is similar to a proposal reportedly discussed directly between Israel's sitting Prime Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to give all the neighborhoods of north-east Jerusalem over to the Palestinian Authority. Livni has said that the subject of Jerusalem was not dealt with in her year-long negotiations with the Palestinian negotiating team lead by former Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia (Abu Alaa) -- but Livni was not part of the direct Olmert-Abbas on Jerusalem, giving her "deniability".
Both Lieberman and Netanyahu have urged going back into Gaza to finish the fight against Hamas, while Livni has only issued tough warnings about reprisals if Hamas does not behave well.
Nabil Abu Rudineh, official spokesman and advisor to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, told the Voice of America last night that "no negotiations can go on with any Prime Minister as long as Israel maintains Jewish settlements in the West Bank".
While Netanyahu staked out a policy challenge, Livni has not spoken out about the settlements. She has been the head of the Israeli negotiating team during the Annapolis process -- which the Israelis have insisted should be bilateral and secret. The few leaks that emerged toward the end of 2008 did not appear to originate from Livni. Abu Rudineh said that "There were some obstacles with Olmert and Livni concerning many issues. We didn't close any files. On the contrary, the settlements continue and we hope that with the change which has taken place in America, there should be change in Israel."
Netanyahu may have hoped that by insisting on these elections, as he did, and by gaining a strong showing, he would prove to the U.S. Administration that there is no support among the Israeli public for the Annapolis negotiating process.
This ambition has been just checked -- but just barely.
Haaretz's Gideon Levy told Voice of America after the polls closed and the first results came in last night that "people who look forward [to] any kind of progress in the peace process should be happy tonight."
But, even with the "left" Meretz, and the "traditional left" Labor party led by former Prime Minister and current Defense Minister Ehud Barak -- which both showed considerable losses in this election -- Livni will still be short a few votes from commanding a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Barak's Labor Party had its lowest results ever - winning only 13 seats, while Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu apparently won 15, coming in with the third-strongest showing.
Coalition negotiations will be probably be difficult, and will involve a lot of extremely unattractive "horse-trading". Advisers to Livni and Netanyahu both say they do not want to envisage any sort of rotation of the Prime Ministership -- which would be a nightmare scenario in any case, in which politicking and back-stabbing would surely take priority over any real policy issues.
One analysis published in the Jerusalem Post today reports that "Kadima's strategy, and the central message of its campaign, was to convince the public that the election was about choosing between Livni and Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu. As Election Day loomed, Kadima remained steady, Lieberman rose, and the Likud started to lose altitude. Kadima's strategists intensified their message: 'It's either Tzipi or Bibi' to reach 'strategic"' voters who wanted to limit the size of the right wing bloc". This article can be read in full here.
One of the strategic advisers to the Kadima campaign was political strategist Eyal Arad, who had previously worked closely with Sharon -- after breaking with Benjamin Netanyahu, for whom he had worked for years, both in New York when Netanyahu was Israel's Ambassador to the UN, and after his return and entry into politics in Israel. Arad told Israel television last night that Netanyahu will NOT be the next Israeli prime minister.
The Christian Science Monitor reported today that Arad, one of Livni's top advisers, said in an interview with Israel's Channel One that "The mandate is hers, and she will form this government".
The next government will, therefore, probably be quite unstable -- and many analysts predict new elections will have to be called within the next year or so.
Meanwhile, an enormous amount of talent, time, money, and energy is consumed in Israel's frequent election campaigns, while millions of Palestinians -- and others around the world -- wait for moves towards peace.
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